Closing line value: a price comparison in two directions

Why this matters

Closing line value compares an earlier price with a closing reference price. The result depends on which market, operator and closing timestamp were recorded. This implementation shows both an odds ratio and a change in reciprocal implied probability.

Before entering the numbers

Closing line value compares an earlier price with a closing reference price. The result depends on which market, operator and closing timestamp were recorded. This implementation shows both an odds ratio and a change in reciprocal implied probability.

Open the calculator: Closing Line Value (CLV) Calculator. All figures below are hypothetical. CU denotes a consistent currency unit, not a named currency. Field and result names match the English calculator interface.

Example 1: the starting assumptions

Enter a taken price of 2.20 and a closing price of 2.00 for the same selection under matching rules. The odds-ratio result and the probability-point change describe different quantities.

Entered fields: Taken decimal odds: 2.2 · Closing decimal odds: 2

Calculated results: Odds-ratio CLV: 10.00 % · Taken implied probability: 45.4545 % · Closing implied probability: 50.0000 % · Implied-probability change: 4.5455 percentage points

• (2.20 / 2.00 − 1) × 100 = 10%
• 100/2.00 − 100/2.20 = 4.5455 percentage points

Example 2: change the inputs

Reverse the prices. The odds-ratio percentage is now about −9.09%, rather than −10%. Percentage changes use their own denominator, so reversing a comparison does not preserve the magnitude.

Entered fields: Taken decimal odds: 2 · Closing decimal odds: 2.2

Calculated results: Odds-ratio CLV: -9.09 % · Taken implied probability: 50.0000 % · Closing implied probability: 45.4545 % · Implied-probability change: -4.5455 percentage points

• (2.00 / 2.20 − 1) × 100 = −9.0909%
• 100/2.20 − 100/2.00 = −4.5455 percentage points

What the result leaves out

A single closing price can contain margin and need not represent true probability. CLV does not settle the bet, establish skill from a small sample or calculate a realised return.

Arithmetic uses unrounded intermediate values; displayed numbers are rounded. These examples document the model, not a provider quote or an observed transaction.

18+. Educational information only. This is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and it is not a guarantee of any result. Betting, gambling and crypto involve a risk of losing money. Estimates depend on your inputs; verify current provider terms and local rules.

Practical checklist

• Record the source, units and time of each input.
• Keep fees and principal in their stated units.
• Reproduce both examples before comparing other inputs.
• Read the stated limitations and current provider terms.