Slot volatility: equal RTP, different illustrative spread

Why this matters

This is a simplified two-outcome model, not a simulator of a named slot. Each independent round either pays a fixed multiplier or pays zero. Holding RTP constant while changing the hit probability illustrates why an average alone says little about the spread.

Before entering the numbers

This is a simplified two-outcome model, not a simulator of a named slot. Each independent round either pays a fixed multiplier or pays zero. Holding RTP constant while changing the hit probability illustrates why an average alone says little about the spread.

Open the calculator: Slot Volatility Illustrator. All figures below are hypothetical. CU denotes a consistent currency unit, not a named currency. Field and result names match the English calculator interface.

Example 1: the starting assumptions

Select the 20% hit profile with 1 CU, 1,000 rounds and 96% RTP. A hit pays 4.8 times the stake, including the returned amount. The other 80% of rounds pay zero in this artificial distribution.

Entered fields: Amount per round: 1 (CU) · Fixed number of rounds: 1000 (rounds) · Model RTP: 96 (%) · Synthetic hit frequency: Less frequent: 20%

Calculated results: Hit payout multiplier: 4.80 × · Zero-payout probability: 80.00 % · Mean net result: -40.00 CU · Net-result standard deviation: 60.72 CU · 50% hit profile: payout: 1.92 × · 50% hit profile: standard deviation: 30.36 CU · 20% hit profile: payout: 4.80 × · 20% hit profile: standard deviation: 60.72 CU · 2% hit profile: payout: 48.00 × · 2% hit profile: standard deviation: 212.51 CU

• hit payout = 0.96 / 0.20 = 4.8×
• mean = 1,000 × 1 × (0.96 − 1) = −40 CU
• SD = 1 × √(1,000 × 0.96² × (1/0.20 − 1))

Example 2: change the inputs

Select the 2% profile with the other inputs unchanged. A hit must pay 48 times the stake to preserve the same mean. The standard deviation rises, although the modelled mean net result is unchanged.

Entered fields: Amount per round: 1 (CU) · Fixed number of rounds: 1000 (rounds) · Model RTP: 96 (%) · Synthetic hit frequency: Rare: 2%

Calculated results: Hit payout multiplier: 48.00 × · Zero-payout probability: 98.00 % · Mean net result: -40.00 CU · Net-result standard deviation: 212.51 CU · 50% hit profile: payout: 1.92 × · 50% hit profile: standard deviation: 30.36 CU · 20% hit profile: payout: 4.80 × · 20% hit profile: standard deviation: 60.72 CU · 2% hit profile: payout: 48.00 × · 2% hit profile: standard deviation: 212.51 CU

• hit payout = 0.96 / 0.02 = 48×
• mean = −40 CU
• SD = 1 × √(1,000 × 0.96² × (1/0.02 − 1))

What the result leaves out

Real slots can have many payout levels, features, state changes and complex dependence. Standard deviation is not a maximum loss, a confidence interval or a forecast of the next spin. The profiles are illustrative assumptions.

Arithmetic uses unrounded intermediate values; displayed numbers are rounded. These examples document the model, not a provider quote or an observed transaction.

18+. Educational information only. This is not financial, investment, legal or tax advice, and it is not a guarantee of any result. Betting, gambling and crypto involve a risk of losing money. Estimates depend on your inputs; verify current provider terms and local rules.

Practical checklist

• Record the source, units and time of each input.
• Keep fees and principal in their stated units.
• Reproduce both examples before comparing other inputs.
• Read the stated limitations and current provider terms.